Four times a year, the Bank of Japan publishes a document known as the Outlook Report. The issue we are reading is dated July 31, 2026. Near the end, on a page marked "reference", there is one table. Its heading is 2026～2028 年度の政策委員の大勢見通し: forecasts of the majority of the Policy Board members, fiscal 2026 to 2028.
One number in it, inside angle brackets, is +2.5. That is the median of the members' forecasts for consumer prices, excluding fresh food, in fiscal 2026.
We are going to read that table. This is not investment advice, and we take no view on whether any of this is good or bad. These are the Bank's forecasts, not ours. We are translating a central bank document.
How the table is built
A line above the table says: change from the previous fiscal year, in percent, and the figures in angle brackets are the medians of the Policy Board members' forecasts. (Japan's fiscal year begins in April. That gloss is ours; the table does not spell it out.)
- Column 1: real GDP (実質ＧＤＰ)
- Column 2: the consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food (消費者物価指数（除く生鮮食品）)
- Column 3, marked "reference": the CPI, excluding fresh food and energy
Each cell holds a range and, under it, a median. Note 1 explains the range. Each member gives a most likely figure. The highest and the lowest are removed, 1 each, and the rest is shown as a range. The note adds that the range is not an upper and lower limit that allows for forecast errors.
Fiscal 2026
- Real GDP: +0.6% to +0.7%, median +0.6%
- CPI, excluding fresh food: +2.3% to +2.7%, median +2.5%
- CPI, excluding fresh food and energy: +2.3% to +2.6%, median +2.5%
Under each year, the table repeats a second row, labelled ４月時点の見通し: forecasts as of April. For fiscal 2026, the April figures were these.
- Real GDP, April: +0.4% to +0.7%, median +0.5%
- CPI, excluding fresh food, April: +2.8% to +3.0%, median +2.8%
- CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, April: +2.5% to +2.7%, median +2.6%
The table prints no difference between the rows. By our arithmetic, the median for real GDP is 0.1 of a percentage point higher than in April (0.6 − 0.5). For the CPI excluding fresh food, it is 0.3 lower (2.5 − 2.8). Excluding energy as well, it is 0.1 lower (2.5 − 2.6). These 3 differences are ours; they are not printed in the document.
The summary on the first page gives a reason for the price figure. In translation: compared with the previous outlook, the year-on-year change in consumer prices, excluding fresh food, is lower for fiscal 2026, owing to factors such as the effects of the government's summer measures to ease the burden of energy costs (electricity and gas charges). On growth, it says: more or less unchanged. Those are the Bank's sentences, not ours.
Fiscal 2027
- Real GDP: +0.7% to +0.8%, median +0.8%. In April: +0.6% to +0.8%, median +0.7%
- CPI, excluding fresh food: +2.2% to +2.5%, median +2.4%. In April: +2.3% to +2.4%, median +2.3%
- CPI, excluding fresh food and energy: +2.2% to +2.7%, median +2.6%. In April: +2.6% to +2.7%, median +2.6%
Fiscal 2028
Fiscal 2028 is the last year in the table.
- Real GDP: +0.7% to +0.8%, median +0.8%. In April: +0.7% to +0.8%, median +0.8%
- CPI, excluding fresh food: +2.0% to +2.2%, median +2.0%. In April: +2.0% to +2.2%, median +2.0%
- CPI, excluding fresh food and energy: +2.1% to +2.3%, median +2.2%. In April: +2.1% to +2.4%, median +2.2%
The April row shows the same 3 medians.
What the forecasts rest on
Note 2, under the table: each member made the forecasts on the assumption of policy already decided and, for future policy, with reference to what markets have priced in.
A footnote in the text adds an assumption for oil. The price of Dubai crude is assumed to start at around $80 a barrel, and to fall to around $70 toward the end of the projection period.
What the table does not say
Three things this table does not tell you, and so we will not either.
- It does not show which member gave which figure.
- It does not say what the Bank will do with its policy interest rate.
- It does not give a probability for any of these numbers.
What it does say is this. In the Outlook Report dated July 31, 2026, the median forecast of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board members for real GDP is +0.6% in fiscal 2026, then +0.8% in each of the next 2 years. For the CPI excluding fresh food, the medians are +2.5%, +2.4% and +2.0%.
The Bank publishes the Outlook Report four times a year. We will read the next one.
Source
Bank of Japan — 経済・物価情勢の展望（2026年7月）【基本的見解】 (Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, July 2026, The Bank's View), July 31, 2026, page 10: https://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/outlook/gor2607a.pdf
Ranges and medians are as printed, in percent change from the previous fiscal year. The differences from the April row (+0.1, −0.3 and −0.1 of a percentage point) are LeakSquare's arithmetic; none of them is printed in the document. These are the forecasts of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board members, not ours. This is a reading of a public document. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation to buy or sell any security.