Japan’s 10-Year Bond Pays 3.1%. Here Is the Page That Says So.

There is a page on the website of Japan's Ministry of Finance that lists what the government is offering to individual buyers this month. The version we are reading is the Japanese one.

One cell on it reads: 3.1%.

That is the coupon on the Japanese government's ten-year bond in the October 2026 offering.

We are going to read that page, line by line. This is not investment advice, and we take no view on whether any of this is attractive. We are translating a government document.

The three numbers at the top

The page has two tables. Start with the second one. Its heading translates roughly as "new over-the-counter sales" government bonds. They are fixed-rate, and the page says they can be sold in the market at any time.

Three maturities are listed.

The ten-year. Issue No. 384. Coupon, 3.1%. The yield to the subscriber is given as 3.048%. The offer price is ¥100.39 for every ¥100 of face value.

The two-year. Issue No. 489. Coupon, 2.0%. Yield, 1.923%.

And the five-year, issue No. 188. On the day the page was dated, its coupon and yield cells held no figure. They simply read: to be announced on October 15.

So from one government page you can read two points on Japan's curve. By our arithmetic, the gap between the ten-year yield and the two-year yield is a little over 1.1 percentage points.

Under those bonds there is a sentence every reader should see. If you sell before maturity, you sell at the market price, and — the page says this in brackets — there is a risk of losing principal.

Hold on to that sentence. The other table is different.

The bond that only individuals get

The first table is a separate product. Its name translates as "Japanese Government Bonds for Individuals."

There are three versions. A three-year at a fixed 2.07%. A five-year at a fixed 2.39%. And the one that matters here: a ten-year with a floating rate. In the October offering it is 2.05%.

Three features make it unusual. All three are on the Ministry's own product page.

First, the rate resets every six months. The formula is printed in the table: the reference rate, multiplied by 0.66. The reference rate comes from the government's own ten-year bond auctions.

Run that backwards. 2.05 divided by 0.66 is about 3.11%. By our arithmetic, that is the ten-year rate the formula was pointing at for this offering — and it sits right next to the 3.1% coupon in the other table.

Second, there is a floor. The page calls it a "minimum interest rate guarantee." It is 0.05% a year. The October rate is 41 times that floor.

Third — and this is the sentence to compare with the earlier one. After the first year, the holder can hand the bond back to the government at any time, at ¥100 per ¥100 of face value. The page says, again in brackets: no risk of loss of principal.

There is a cost. On early redemption, an amount based on the last two interest payments is deducted. And for the first year, redemption is in principle not allowed.

The minimum purchase is ¥10,000. It is sold every month. And the page counts the institutions that handle it: 872.

What the page does not say

Three things this page does not tell you, and so we will not either.

It does not say why the ten-year coupon is 3.1%.

It does not say how much of this the public is actually buying.

And it does not say whether anyone outside Japan can buy the individual version. We have not checked, so we are not claiming either way.

What it does say, in one screen, is this. In October 2026 the Japanese state is borrowing for ten years at a coupon of 3.1%. And it is offering individuals a floating-rate version with a floor, and with the right to hand it back at par after the first year.

The page is linked below. It already lists the dates of the next offering, in November. We will read it again then.

The figures, as printed on the page (dated October 7, 2026)

10-year fixed (issue No. 384): coupon 3.1%, subscriber yield 3.048%, offer price ¥100.39 per ¥100 face value
2-year fixed (issue No. 489): coupon 2.0%, subscriber yield 1.923%, offer price ¥100.14
5-year fixed (issue No. 188): coupon and yield to be announced October 15
Floating 10-year for individuals (issue No. 199): 2.05%. Formula: reference rate × 0.66. Floor: 0.05%
Fixed 5-year for individuals (issue No. 187): 2.39%
Fixed 3-year for individuals (issue No. 197): 2.07%

Sources

Arithmetic marked "by our arithmetic" is LeakSquare's own (3.11% = 2.05 ÷ 0.66; 41× = 2.05 ÷ 0.05; 1.125 points = 3.048 − 1.923). This is a reading of public documents. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation to buy or sell any security.